Our research team releases regular monthly housing trends reports. These reports break down inventory metrics like the number of active listings and the pace of the market. In addition, we continue to give readers more timely weekly updates, an effort that began in response to the rapid changes in the economy and housing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Generally, you can look forward to a Weekly Housing Trends View and the latest weekly housing data on Thursdays and from our economists monthly. Here鈥檚 what the housing market looked like over the last week.
What this Week’s Data Means:
Median listing prices fell relative to last year for the fifth week in a row, though the decline slowed again this week. The annual decline in home prices has moderated over the last few weeks as the matchup between buyer demand and limited for-sale inventory keeps prices afloat. In line with this trend, our updated 2023 housing forecast expects rough stability in prices that will result in a modest 0.6% decline for the year. Contract signings fell month-over-month in May and remained significantly lower than last year as buyer activity continued to be stifled by the lack of options on the market. However, builders are enjoying renewed energy in the new home side of the market, which saw sales jump 12.2% in May as buyers pivoted their energy toward new construction amid dwindling existing home stock.听听
The decline in active inventory picked up this week, notching the third week of negative annual inventory growth as continued sluggish new listing activity moves through the market. Buyers appear to have adapted to the higher mortgage rate environment faster than sellers, which has hampered inventory recovery. For this reason, our updated 2023 outlook expects inventory to drop this year as fewer sellers choose to participate in today鈥檚 market.
Key Findings:
- The median listing price continued to register lower than last year, by 0.2% this week. Listing prices are still down from last year for a fifth week, but the size of the decline was smaller than in the previous few weeks. Despite the year over year dip, June鈥檚 median home list price was $445,000, up slightly from May鈥檚 $441,445 price. The typical asking price has fallen less than one percent from last year鈥檚 high price: $450,000. While some forecasters are expecting a tumble in real estate prices, our latest 2023 housing outlook anticipates a more moderate decline of just 0.6% for the year. While affordability continues to challenge buyers, the lack of inventory is likely to be the key issue for eager buyers as it keeps upward pressure on prices while limiting buyer choice.
- New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 27% from one year ago.听The number of newly listed homes has been lower than the same time the previous year for the past 53 weeks. This week鈥檚 data shows a wider gap than last week, and is bigger than what has been typical year-to-date. The job market鈥檚 ongoing resilience has enabled buyers to remain active in today鈥檚 market, despite the high cost of homeownership. However, high mortgage rates have convinced many would-be sellers to hold off on listing their home for sale. Buyer demand and lack of existing home inventory has resulted in renewed new home sales energy.
- Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5%.听A year into weekly new listing declines, active inventory levels have started to mirror the slow down in listing activity. More than 80% of home-shoppers looking to buy and sell a home feel locked in by their current mortgage rate. As a result, buyers are seeing fewer available homes on the market. We expect to see this trend continue as mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated for the time being.
- Homes spent 13 extra days on the market compared to this time last year. For 51 consecutive weeks, it鈥檚 taken longer to sell a home compared to the same time one year ago. Though buyers face limited inventory, homes on the market are not selling as quickly as last year, signifying that supply and demand are more closely matched today than during the pandemic. However, dwindling inventory means that homes are still spending less time on the market than in the same week pre-pandemic. While today鈥檚 buyers are enjoying a slower-paced market, they must still contend with price levels just slightly lower than year-ago levels. Buyers weighing the decision to buy now or wait may find relief in the rental market, which saw an annual decrease in prices in May after years of climbing rents.
Data Summary:
| All Changes year-over-year | Year-to-Date 2023 | Week ending June 24, 2023 | Week ending July 1, 2023 | Week ending July 8, 2023 |
| Median Listing Prices | 4.0%听 | -0.9% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| New Listings听 | -21%听 | -29% | -21% | -27% |
| Active Listings听 | +41%听 | -0% | -2% | -5% |
| Time on Market | 16 days slower | 13 days slower | 13 days slower | 13 days slower |
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