November 18, 2022
- The ¸é±ð²¹±ô³Ù´Ç°ù.³¦´Ç³¾Â® economics team update gives you the relevant economic and real estate information you need to know to navigate the housing market as a homebuyer, home seller, or industry professional.
- This week, Chief Economist Danielle Hale discusses the latest data on household debt, retail spending, and consumer inflation expectations and what they suggest about the economic outlook, and what it could mean for the Fed’s next move.Ìý
- Danielle dives into the impact of the on mortgage rates, which George Ratiu details, and how recent trends are affecting the consumer mindset.Ìý
- She also discusses how this is impacting builder confidence and housing starts for both for-sale and for-rent homes as well as how this is playing out in rent trends and attitudes of DIY landlords.
- From the October existing home sales data, Danielle sees consistencies with the latest Realtor.com weekly housing data highlighting a cooling market. But some markets still feel the heat as Hannah Jones noted in the Realtor.com October 2022 Hottest Housing Markets list.Ìý
- Finally, Danielle wraps with the latest research by colleague Jiayi Xu which leverages home-level data to find out how consumers are navigating environmental risks when home shopping.Ìý
- Find details and ¸é±ð²¹±ô³Ù´Ç°ù.³¦´Ç³¾Â® housing data for download at Big gaming/research.Ìý And follow us on : , for real time updates.
WEEKLY DATA SUMMARY:
- ±õ’m Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com® and here’s what you need to know in this data-packed week before Thanksgiving.Ìý
- Let’s start with : as costs rise faster than incomes, consumers are taking on more. Both mortgage and non-mortgage household debt rose recently with credit card balances surging 15% from a year ago, their biggest yearly gain in 20 years!Â
- This is consistent with data showing that outpaced inflation, jumping in October from both September and one year ago.
- Surprisingly, as actual price growth abated in October, rose for all future periods. This could put upward pressure on interest rates as investors shift their focus from the size of the next Fed rate hike to how high the policy rate may ultimately go and for how long.
- Nevertheless, markets celebrated October inflation, driving mortgage rates lower by nearly half a percent this week! On the plus side, this expanded buyer purchasing power. However, volatility makes it hard for buyers to set and stick to a budget.ÌýÂ
- Home builder confidence slipped for an 11th month as builders are increasingly helping buy-down mortgage rates for buyers.
- As builder optimism waned, so did housing starts. Compared to last year, however, multifamily starts–which are predominantly built for-rent–are seeing a renaissance, adding to the pipeline of future rental homes. This will eventually help better balance housing demand and supply.Ìý
- In fact, already, the median rent growth for smaller rental homes slipped under 5%. And while a large majority of DIY landlords plan to increase rent in the next 12 months, the size of rent hikes is likely to shrink.
- In October, sales of existing homes slipped as climbing mortgage rates and prices pushed a purchase out of reach. Lower rates will change the affordability calculation, but volatility may keep shoppers sidelined.
- The Realtor.com Weekly Housing Trends Report suggests that uncertainty is leading to hesitation. As both buyers and sellers pull back, median listing prices are slowing and new listings are down even though longer time on market is driving the number of homes actively for sale on any given day higher.Ìý
- But as housing cools & the mercury drops, real estate markets in the Northeast and Midwest are still feeling the heat, topping our October 2022 Hottest Housing Markets list.Ìý
- And finally, did you know that homes on Realtor.com feature environmental risk data? Our latest research suggests that buyers slightly prefer homes at lower-risk of both wildfire and flooding. These preferences tend to be stronger in areas at higher risk of events, but they aren’t universal and these risks are some of many factors home shoppers try to weigh. You can find property-level risk information when viewing homes on Realtor.com by scrolling down to the Environmental Risk section.
- You’ll find the details along with our housing data for download at Big gaming/research.Ìý And follow us on for real time updates.
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