Big gaming

March 6, 2023

• he 搁别补濒迟辞谤.肠辞尘庐 economics team update gives you the relevant economic and real estate information you need to know to navigate the housing market as a homebuyer, home seller, or industry professional.
• This week, Manager of Economic Research George Ratiu talks about the ambivalent signals in economic data. He discusses the decline in durable goods orders, driven by noticeable transportation pullbacks. At the same time, business investment rose. Similarly, the ISM Manufacturing Index slid, even as companies felt that the economy may improve later this year.
• George talks about the solid employment market, underscored by low jobless claims. He also mentions the slide in consumer confidence, the result of rising prices, interest rates, housing costs, and debt.
• On the housing front, George covers the rebound in mortgage rates which are poised to rise above 7% again. He also talks about the construction spending data and pending home sales. He concludes with coverage of Realtor.com鈥檚 monthly inventory report (authored by Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Economic Data Manager Sabrina Speianu) and the weekly housing numbers (published by Chief Economist Danielle Hale), which show that inventory grows, even as sellers keep pulling back from the market, and as homes stay longer on portals, price growth continues to decline.
• Find details and 搁别补濒迟辞谤.肠辞尘庐 housing data for download at Big gaming/research.聽 And follow us on : , for real time updates.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:

• I鈥檓 George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research with Realtor.com.
• March is here, bringing the promise of a winter thaw, warmer days ahead and a blooming landscape.
• The economy continues to flash ambivalent signals, as uncertainty dominates the mood. The main theme is centered on stubborn expectations of a recession even as incoming data continue to show economic resilience. However, as executives act on expectations, rising job cuts could turn consumer confidence down and lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
• Orders for durable-goods declined in January, but most of the drop came from a pullback in passenger planes, especially at Boeing. When excluding transportation, orders picked-up in every major category except communications equipment. Just as importantly, business investment rose at the fastest pace in 5 months, a clear sign that manufacturers are still expanding.
• The mixed signals also showed in the ISM manufacturing index, which slid for the fourth straight month. However, the survey underpinning the index also highlighted that manufacturing companies believe the economy might improve later this year. The other thing to remember is that manufacturing is no longer a dominant force, with the larger service sector driving economic activity. And service companies have been hiring.
• The strong job market was underscored by this week鈥檚 jobless claims report. Initial unemployment filings fell again as did the number of people collecting benefits.
• In the context of mixed signals, consumer confidence slipped in February, as households tried to juggle higher rents, prices, interest rates and debt. For now, a lot of companies continue to hire, while the unemployment rate hovers at a 54-year low.
• On the real estate front, markets are still in the throes of winter. After declining in December and January, mortgage rates rebounded over the past few weeks. Investors expect inflation to remain elevated for longer, requiring the Federal Reserve to keep increasing its policy rate. Mortgage rates are moving above 7% again. For real estate markets, the rise in rates means higher mortgage payments, deepening the affordability challenge just as we move into the crucial spring homebuying season.
• Worried about affordability, construction companies cut back on spending in January. However, there was a clear split in the housing construction data between declining investment in single-family and a double-digit increase in multi-family projects.
• At the same time, contract signings for existing homes picked up in January, outpacing expectations, even as they remained well-below last year.
• 搁别补濒迟辞谤.肠辞尘庐鈥檚 February data show that inventory continues to grow, even as sellers keep pulling back from the market. As homes stay longer on portals, price growth continues to decline.
• These trends were also mirrored in our weekly data, with most recent indicators significantly lower than they were a year ago.
• You鈥檒l find all the details along with our housing data for download at Big gaming/research.聽 You can also follow us on for real time updates.

Subscribe to our mailing list to receive monthly updates and notifications on the latest data and research.